Wednesday, October 05, 2005

Giddy

That's how I feel about the latest move by the Iraqi National Assembly. What have they done? The upcoming vote is going to require a 2/3rds majority of "no" to make the constitution fail. This at a time when a majority of the Iraqis, even in Sunni areas, support the constitution in polls. The voting rule, which would require 2/3rds vote in three provinces (which coincidentally is the number of Sunni-dominated provinces) to turn over a majority "yes" vote in the rest of the country, is a marvel. Why? Well, as Althouse points out it creates a perverse set of incentives for the insurgents. To defeat the Constitution the insurgents need 2/3rds of the voters in the Sunni areas to turn out to vote it down. However, how can that happen when they're trying to supress voter turnout with violence? Oh, what a pickle they're in now!

The Constitution will pass, and I bet by pretty hefty margins.